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A Jobless Nation
38%
Unemployment Rate
Jobless Crisis: 2.6 Million Dreams Crushed
When William Ruto campaigned for Kenya’s presidency, he positioned himself as the champion of the “hustler nation” – the unemployed youth and struggling small business owners. His signature promise was the creation of 4 million jobs annually through his “Bottom-Up Economic Model.” Instead, under his leadership, Kenya has experienced its worst unemployment crisis in decades, with millions of young people left without hope or opportunity.
The Devastating Numbers
The employment situation has deteriorated dramatically under Ruto’s watch:
- September 2022 (Ruto takes office): Official unemployment rate at 5.7%
- April 2024: Unemployment rate soared to 9.3%
- Youth unemployment (ages 18-34): Increased from 32.7% to 39.1%
- Net job losses: Approximately 2.6 million jobs eliminated
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) quarterly labor reports show that instead of creating the promised 4 million jobs annually, Ruto’s policies have resulted in massive job losses across virtually all sectors of the economy.
The Collapsed Promises
Ruto’s campaign manifesto outlined specific job creation strategies that have all failed:
- Promise: Ksh 50 billion annual “Hustler Fund” to create 5 million small businesses
- Reality: Only Ksh 6 billion allocated, with 60% default rate and fewer than 200,000 sustainable businesses created
- Promise: Digital jobs program to employ 1 million youth in online work
- Reality: Only 17,000 placements achieved, with program funding diverted to other initiatives
- Promise: Manufacturing revival to create 1 million industrial jobs
- Reality: Manufacturing sector contracted by 3.7%, with 74 major factories closing operations
The Public Sector Betrayal
Despite promises to expand government services, Ruto’s administration has overseen massive public sector downsizing:
- Civil service: 14,700 positions eliminated through “voluntary” early retirement
- Teachers: Promised 116,000 new positions, only 20,000 actually hired
- Healthcare workers: 7,200 contract workers terminated
- County government employees: 23,000 positions eliminated due to reduced county allocations
The Parliamentary Budget Office reported that these cuts were primarily driven by IMF loan conditions that Ruto’s government eagerly accepted, contradicting his campaign promises to protect public sector employment.
The Private Sector Collapse
The private sector, which Ruto promised would be the engine of job creation, has instead shed jobs at an alarming rate:
- Retail sector: 42,000 jobs lost as major retailers downsize or close
- Manufacturing: 87,000 industrial jobs eliminated
- Banking: 5,300 jobs cut as banks accelerate digitization
- Agriculture: 1.2 million farm jobs lost due to policy failures and climate challenges
The Kenya Association of Manufacturers’ annual survey revealed that 74% of businesses reduced their workforce in 2023, citing excessive taxation, high energy costs, and government corruption as primary factors.
The SME Extinction
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which Ruto claimed would be the centerpiece of his economic strategy, have faced extinction-level challenges:
- SME closures: Over 61,000 registered small businesses shut down since September 2022
- Informal sector contraction: 17% reduction in jua kali (informal) businesses
- SME loan defaults: Increased by 43%, leading to asset seizures
- New business registrations: Declined by 61% compared to pre-Ruto period
The Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry documented how increased taxation, punitive regulatory requirements, and lack of promised government support have created a hostile environment for small businesses.
The Youth Betrayal
Young Kenyans, who formed Ruto’s core support base, have been particularly devastated:
- University graduates unemployment: Increased from 41% to 56%
- Technical college graduates unemployment: Rose from 32% to 47%
- Youth-owned businesses: 43% closed within 18 months of Ruto taking office
- Internship opportunities: Government internship program funding cut by 73%
A survey by the Youth Enterprise Development Fund found that 68% of young Kenyans now believe entrepreneurship is no longer viable due to the hostile business environment created by Ruto’s policies.
The Regional Disparity
Unemployment has not affected all regions equally, with some areas experiencing catastrophic job losses:
- Coast region: 23.7% unemployment (highest in the country)
- Western Kenya: 19.3% unemployment
- Nairobi: 17.8% unemployment
- Central Kenya: 11.2% unemployment (lowest, but still nearly doubled from 2022)
This regional disparity has fueled perceptions of ethnic favoritism, with areas that voted against Ruto suffering disproportionately higher job losses and receiving less economic support.
The Sectoral Collapse
Key sectors that traditionally absorbed large numbers of workers have been devastated:
- Construction: 37% contraction following the collapse of affordable housing program
- Tourism: 23% job reduction due to security concerns and global economic factors
- Transport: 19% job losses following fuel price increases and vehicle import taxes
- Agriculture: 14% employment reduction due to failed subsidy programs and climate challenges
The Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya noted that this cross-sectoral collapse is unprecedented in Kenya’s post-independence history.
The Skills Mismatch Excuse
Rather than addressing policy failures, Ruto’s administration has blamed unemployment on “skills mismatch”:
- January 2023: Launched Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) reforms
- Promised outcome: Education system aligned with job market needs
- Reality: Ksh 18 billion spent on consultants and conferences
- Impact on employment: Zero measurable improvement
Education experts have criticized this approach as a distraction from the real issues of economic mismanagement and corruption that are the true drivers of unemployment.
The Wage Depression
For those fortunate enough to remain employed, real wages have declined significantly:
- Average real wages: Decreased by 17% when adjusted for inflation
- Minimum wage: Despite a nominal 12% increase, real value declined by 9%
- Informal sector earnings: Decreased by 23% in real terms
- Public sector wage freeze: Implemented despite 15% inflation
The Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) has documented how workers’ purchasing power has eroded dramatically under Ruto’s administration, with the average worker now unable to afford basic necessities despite being employed.
Sources:
This article draws from multiple sources including: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Quarterly Labor Force Reports (2022-2024); Central Bank of Kenya Economic Reviews; Federation of Kenya Employers Annual Employment Trends Survey; Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry Business Environment Reports; Parliamentary Budget Office Analysis of Public Sector Employment; Institute of Economic Affairs Kenya Economic Reports; Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) Wage Analysis Studies; Youth Enterprise Development Fund Surveys; Kenya Association of Manufacturers Annual Industrial Survey; World Bank Kenya Jobs Diagnostic Report (March 2024); International Labour Organization Country Assessment for Kenya; and media investigations by Business Daily, The Standard, and Reuters on specific job loss incidents across various sectors between September 2022 and April 2024.
